4.3 · Deciding Under Uncertainty

Thinking, Learning & Decisions · 4.3

Built specifically for an over-researcher who wants certainty before acting.

1 core2 deepen1 reference

Core

Thinking in Bets

Annie Duke

Separates decision quality from outcome quality. This single distinction is what lets a perfectionist act without a guaranteed result — the highest-leverage idea in this domain for me.

CoreS

Deepen

How to Decide

Annie Duke

The workbook version. Actual usable tools.

DeepenM

Decisive

Chip & Dan Heath

The WRAP framework. Practical and immediately applicable.

DeepenM

Reference

Superforecasting

Philip Tetlock

Calibrated prediction from a twenty-year forecasting tournament. Fascinating; less directly applicable.

ReferenceM